In this week’s recap: Markets sag, job numbers soar.
Weekly Economic Update
Presented by Rabenold Advisors, September 5, 2022
THE WEEK ON WALL STREET
The overhang of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech the previous week carried over into last week as investors recalibrated stock valuations amid a seemingly more assertive monetary policy stance.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.99%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 stumbled 3.29%. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 4.21%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slid 4.90%.1,2,3
STOCKS EXTEND LOSSES
Investors remained unnerved by the aggressive tone of Jerome Powell’s speech and subsequent comments from Fed officials suggesting a higher rate hike than the market expected at the Fed two-day meeting ending September 21. The probability of a 75 basis point hike in September rose to nearly 65%, up from just 28% a month ago.4
Stocks moved steadily lower before finding some footing on Thursday. Friday’s employment report appeared to strike a “goldilocks” note (i.e., labor gains not so strong that it might trigger greater Fed hawkishness but robust enough to allay imminent recession fears). After early gains, stocks turned lower ahead of the holiday weekend.
Employers added 315,000 jobs in August, maintaining the labor market’s remarkable resiliency amid a contracting economy. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, up from last month’s 3.5%. The gain followed an uptick in the labor participation rate, which expanded from 62.1% to 62.4%. Wages continued to grow, rising 0.3% in August and 5.2% from 12 months ago.5
Sectors seeing the most significant increases in new jobs were professional and business services, healthcare, and retail. Lagging sectors were manufacturing, financial, and wholesale trade.6
T I P O F T H E W E E K
Have you talked to your spouse or partner about your retirement goals? This is vital. See how your individual visions of retirement correspond or differ.
THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Tuesday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index.
Thursday: Jobless Claims.
Source: Econoday, September 2, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
Thursday: Zscaler, Inc. (ZS), Docusign (DOCU).
Friday: The Kroger Co. (KR).
Source: Zacks, September 2, 2022
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K
“Education is the transmission of civilization.”
T H E W E E K L Y R I D D L E
A sudden noise startles a gopher, an owl, and a skunk at the edge of a forest. The owl flies off and the gopher retreats into his burrow, but the skunk runs for the trees. How far can that skunk run into the forest?
LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: What can run but never walks, has a mouth but never eats, has a head but never thinks, and has a bed but never sleeps?
ANSWER: A river.
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Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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2. The Wall Street Journal, September 2, 2022
3. The Wall Street Journal, September 2, 2022
4. The Wall Street Journal, August 29, 2022
5. CNBC, September 2, 2022
6. CNBC, September 2, 2022